Thursday, July 9, 2009

Breaking down the bedlam part 2.

The tiers have finally been broken down, what a painful process that was. It’s time to breakdown the breakdown and talk some strategy. How about we start with the excitement of budget constraints? It may not be the most thrilling topic in the world but important none the less. But before we get into more FFB talk, let us digress into a topic that is near and dear to my heart, reality TV. My two favorite “summer” reality shows have been the Duel 2 and I Survived a Japanese Game Show. I think you may know where I am going with this. That’s right sports fans; it’s time to combine these two giants of reality TV. I can see it now. You have CT dressed up like a giant sumo wrestler trying to run through a wind tunnel that is dripping with slime in a hilarious attempt to transfer giant stuffed panda bears through an obstacle course. Not only do we put our MTV heroes in crazy situations, which can’t be any worse than the challenges they do on the duel, but can you imagine the house dynamic when you introduce the real world kids, alcohol, and a Japanese house mom all into the same place. I say it’s TV gold. I should figure out a way to get paid for these great ideas.

Speaking of great ideas, let’s jump back into FFB budgets. We have $200 to spend, so how much should go to RB’s? As I have said earlier, I am not touching Brady or Brees in a fantasy auction so I will only spend about $25 total on the QB position for 1 starter and a back up. Obviously, if you are in a 2 QB league, that number will increase. I am also not willing to shell out big bucks for one of the top 3 TE’s. So I will be spending less than $10 on that position. It should be more like $5 but let’s play it safe and call it $10. I always allocate $1 each for kicker and defense. That leaves us with $163 for WR/RB. I believe you can have a very productive WR corps for $63 dollars, leaving $100 for RB’s.

Now that we have our $100 budget set for RB’s, how should we spend that money? First, let’s take a look at the A.P. approach. Say you land Mr. Peterson for $70. You now have $30 left for another starter and a couple back-ups. We are going to have to move all the way down to tier D to get someone in our price range. My advice would be to grab one of the following four players for $15 or less. Your choices are P. Thomas, McFadden, Stewart, or Ward. Time to turn your eyes towards tier F. My plan would be to grab 2 of those guys for $5 or less. That leaves you with 4 RB’s and $5 to spend on a couple sleepers.

If A.P. is not your guy you should be able to obtain a much more balanced rushing attack. A lot of people like Forte this year, so let’s start buy spending $55 on him. You could go all in and spend the rest of your budget on guys like Williams, Gore, Slaton, or Jacobs. Any of those guys would make for a great 1-2 punch, but you would be stuck grabbing sleepers to fill out your bench. Then you would have to start praying that neither of your starters have an injury. A more practical approach would be to grab someone from the top of tier D like Smith, Brown, Jones, or Grant for around $20. That’s still a nice 1-2 punch but leaves you $15 to fill out a solid bench.

If you’ve gotten this far, allow me to walk you through one more approach that is even more conservative. This is my “quantity over quality” approach. I like to have one “semi-stud” using this approach. Let’s start with a $40 F. Gore. Combine him with a couple of $15 risk/reward lottery tickets of McFadden and Ward. Dip down to tier E and grab 2 more. I’ll take Parker for $13 and White for $12. You still have $5 to pick a player from tier F to fill out a very solid group of 6 RB’s. It may not be a sexy approach but you are counting on McFadden, Ward, or one of your E level picks to be extremely productive. You would be protected against injuries and have some trade bait if Parker of White are more productive that projected. Keep in mind that you can never have to many RB’s because there are always injuries that lead to trade opportunities.

The moment you have all been waiting for has finally arrived. That’s right; it’s time for the overrated and underrated section of our program.

Overrated – C. Johnson (50). I’m still not buying the speedy RB who failed to break a run for more than 25 yards last season. Especially when I think White is going to have another stellar year.

Underrated – T. Jones (20). As I said before, Jones finished the year 4th among fantasy RB’s last year. While I don’t think Jones is a top 5 back this year, $20 is
a great price to pay for a border line top ten RB.

Overrated – M. Lynch (18). With a suspension looming I can’t justify spending close to $20 to land this guy. Even when he was on the field last year he wasn’t all that productive.

Underrated – W. Parker (13). I know Parker has been unable to stay healthy, but I am more than willing to spend less than $15 for top ten ability.

Overrated – K. Smith (23). I just checked. He still plays for the Lions and there terrible offensive line. Even if he gets off to a good start, the opponent is simply going to stack the line of scrimmage and stuff him. The only Lion I want on my team is still Calvin Johnson.

Underrated – Forte (55). A top 5 RB last year when the team had no passing game. Forte should see a lot more running lanes this year. I believe he can be the #1 fantasy back this season.

Overrated – R. Bush (11). If you are not in a PPR league there is no reason to be paying double digit dollars for this guy. I wouldn’t pay more than $5.

Underrated – D. Williams (46). It’s fairly simple. Williams was the #1 fantasy RB last year and he is rated as the #8 RB this year. That’s great value.

That's all for today. I'll be back soon with the WR breakdown. Have a good one.

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